VolumeTrend

Volume Trend — Haugen and Baker 1996

Liquidity

Quick facts

Factor ID VolumeTrend
Display name Volume Trend
Family Predictor
Category Liquidity
Direction lower_expected_return
Status supported
Paper Haugen and Baker 1996
Source tables daily
Required fields vol
PIT required no
Coverage 2011-01-24 – 2026-05-15 · 617,718 rows · 90.2% of panel

Formula

(mean(log_vol recent 63d) - mean(log_vol lagged 63d)) / mean(log_vol 252d)

Proxy for the slope of log volume over the past year using difference of sub-period means.

China adaptation

Uses a difference-of-means proxy rather than a full OLS slope for computational efficiency.

Direction-adjusted cumulative return

1.00 1.54 2.08 2.62 3.16 2011-01 2014-11 2018-09 2022-07 2026-04

Return metrics

Metric Value
Months in sample 184
Monthly mean 0.5820%
Monthly std 3.2698%
Annualized Sharpe 0.62
t-stat (simple) 2.41
Hit rate (months > 0) 65.8%
Last 12M compounded -6.72%
Cumulative wealth (start = 1) 2.641

Recent 12 months

Month L/S return Cumulative Names
2025-05 +2.02% 2.888 5046
2025-06 +1.28% 2.925 5055
2025-07 -0.07% 2.923 5057
2025-08 +1.58% 2.970 5062
2025-09 +1.88% 3.026 5069
2025-10 +4.42% 3.159 5075
2025-11 -4.27% 3.025 5081
2025-12 -2.75% 2.941 5088
2026-01 -1.82% 2.888 5095
2026-02 +0.55% 2.904 5099
2026-03 -6.64% 2.711 5105
2026-04 -2.58% 2.641 5101

Known data issues

None recorded.

Notes

Simplified proxy; full OLS slope version is planned.

See also: Liquidity family, Factor library, Factor returns.